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Population Projections

The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute produces three products for the State of Utah to inform decision making: long-term (50-year) planning projections, short-term (10-year) projections, and long-term projections by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin.

The Utah long and short-term projections are updated every four years on an alternating schedule. Previous vintages created by the Gardner Institute, for reference purposes only, are available in our archive.

911, 2023

Insight: How do the new U.S. Population Projections Compare to Utah’s?

November 9th, 2023|

By: Mike Hollingshaus The U.S. Census Bureau recently published new long-term population projections for the United States to 2100, along with scenarios. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute publishes population projections for Utah and its 29 counties. Our most recent baseline long-term planning projections and to 2060 were published last year. […]

2909, 2023

Demographic Impacts of Zero Migration in Utah – A Projection Scenario

September 29th, 2023|

Net migration has become a more dependable contributor to population growth in Utah. A simulation of zero migration highlights what those contributions are—with Utah’s projected population being 1.4 million less, or 23% smaller, than the 2021 Vintage baseline projected population in 2060.

2909, 2023

Insight: Migration’s Contributions to Population Growth

September 29th, 2023|

By: Mike Hollingshaus A new fact sheet explores net migration’s cumulative effects on Utah’s projected population growth – without it, Utah’s population would include 1.4 million fewer residents in 2060. Natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration are the two sources of growth. Both have been important in Utah’s past, but recently net migration has become more prominent. That trend will likely continue, though our  projections maintain positive natural increase in Utah through 2060. […]

806, 2023

Insight: Demographic Inputs for Projections

June 8th, 2023|

By: Mike Hollingshaus Note: The opinions expressed are those of the author alone and do not reflect an institutional position of the Gardner Institute. We hope the opinions shared contribute to the marketplace of ideas and help people as they formulate their own INFORMED DECISIONS™. […]

806, 2023

Demographic Inputs for Utah’s Long-Term Baseline and Scenario Planning Projections

June 8th, 2023|

This document presents inputs and methods that produced the demographic components of change for the Vintage 2021 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute’s Utah Demographic and Economic Model (UDEM). Details include geographic variations within the state, age and gender patterns, and special types of migration related to retirement, missionaries, students, and other special populations. The document also reports how the limited 2020 decennial census data were combined with other resources and models to inform the process.

2812, 2022

Insight: The Future of Utah’s School and College-Age Population

December 28th, 2022|

By Heidi Prior Utah’s population will add more than 284,000 school and college-age individuals between 2020 and 2060, according to long-term planning projections published by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. The variations in these populations over time reflect the impacts of birth patterns and migration over time. This blog summarizes projected changes in Utah’s school-age (5 to 17) and college-age (18-24) populations, which are explored in more depth in this research brief. […]

908, 2022

Insight: High and Low Projection Scenarios for Utah and its Counties

August 9th, 2022|

By: Mike Hollingshaus The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute created a new low- and high-growth scenario product for the state and all 29 counties for the first time. This information supplements the regularly-produced baseline long-term planning projections with alternative plausible futures for the state and counties. The figure highlights the range for the total population statewide, with the low scenario coming in at 4.4 million residents in 2060 and the high at 6.3 million. The baseline projection is 5.5 million residents. […]

908, 2022

User Guide: Long-Term Planning Projection Scenarios

August 9th, 2022|

The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute prepares long-term demographic and economic planning projections to assist with state decision-making. The Institute released a set of baseline (or most likely) projections in January 2022. These baseline projections provide the data foundation for Utah’s long-term transportation, water, education, and other planning activities.