Population Projections
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute produces three products for the State of Utah to inform decision making: long-term (50-year) planning projections, short-term (10-year) projections, and long-term projections by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin.
The Utah long and short-term projections are updated every four years on an alternating schedule. Previous vintages created by the Gardner Institute, for reference purposes only, are available in our archive.
Insight: New Product: Experimental Age, Sex, Race and Ethnicity Projections for Every State for 2030, with Scenarios
By: Mike Hollingshaus and Emily Harris The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute is happy to release a new experimental product: population projections for every state in 2030. These are available by age, sex, race, and ethnicity. High, middle, and low scenarios are also available. We provide datasets, a user guide, and some useful dynamic visuals for exploration (an example for the Mountain states is pictured below). These projections combine other publicly available datasets using transparent statistical methods, as detailed in the User Guide. […]
Experimental Age, Sex, Race and Ethnicity Projections for Every State for 2030, with Scenarios
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute produced new experimental population projections for 2030 by sex, age, race and ethnicity, and state as part of a contract with the Sorenson Impact Center (SIC).
Accuracy Analysis of Long-Term Planning Projections for Utah and its Counties
With over half a century of population projections in Utah, this analysis highlights the difficulty of accurately identifying the future population based on current trends.
Insight: County-Level Insights from our Long-Term Planning Projections
By Mallory Bateman and Max Backlund The Gardner Institute recently released a new vintage of long-term planning projections. The data provides official insights into the state and counties’ total populations, households, and economies. With this data, communities can plan for the next 10, 20, and 40 years and consider how changing characteristics might impact services, policies, and more. […]
Utah’s Long-Term Planning Projections: A Baseline Scenario of Population and Employment Change in Utah and its Counties
Utah's continued economic growth and diversification and declining natural increase will drive net migration to become a steadily increasing force as the population grows by over 2.2 million people (a 66% increase) in the next four decades.
Demographic County Profiles by Age, Sex, Race and Ethnicity, 2010–2019
Utah’s 2019 population was estimated at 3,220,272. Between 2010 and 2019, it grew by 447,875, representing an average annual percentage growth rate of 1.7 percent. The state remains relatively young with 29.3 percent of the population being preschool or school age (under 18), compared to 11.2 percent of retirement age (65 and older).
Insight: How might COVID-19 affect Utah’s Population Growth?
By: Mike Hollingshaus Note: The opinions expressed are those of the author alone and do not reflect an institutional position of the Gardner Institute. We hope the opinions shared contribute to the marketplace of ideas and help people as they formulate their own INFORMED DECISIONS™. COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, is challenging Utah’s individuals, families, and institutions. Following the guidance of our public health experts should help alleviate harm. In the meantime, we must still prepare for our states’ future operations while coping with near term disruptions. This leads us to wondering: How might COVID-19 affect Utah’s[...]