Population Projections
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute produces three products for the State of Utah to inform decision making: long-term (50-year) planning projections, short-term (10-year) projections, and long-term projections by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin.
The Utah long and short-term projections are updated every four years on an alternating schedule. Previous vintages created by the Gardner Institute, for reference purposes only, are available in our archive.
Insight: Utah’s Future: The Long View
By: Pamela Perlich Note: The opinions expressed are those of the author alone and do not reflect an institutional position of the Gardner Institute. We hope the opinions shared contribute to the marketplace of ideas and help people as they formulate their own INFORMED DECISIONS™. We are still in the early stages of understanding and responding to the public health, economic, and personal impacts of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Utah. It is becoming clear that, in the short run, these events will challenge our institutions and people by disrupting economic activity, straining public health resources, and imposing stresses on our[...]
Insight: Utah’s Near Future: Short-term Population Projections
By: Mike Hollingshaus We are pleased to release our new short-term projections for 2018 to 2028. They incorporate the latest data to give Utahns newer insights into our changing demographics. Our projections show the state continuing to grow over the next ten years, at an average of 1.7 percent annually. This translates into 570,000 people. Household growth is also robust with an increase of 270,000 over 10 years. In general, births have slowed, and net migration is becoming an even more important component of Utah’s growth. […]
Utah’s Increasing Diversity: Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity
Utah will continue to be a place of economic and educational opportunity, bringing new residents from domestic and international regions. We project Utah’s population will continue to grow and become more diverse along many dimensions, including ethnicity and race. The trend toward increasingly diverse schools and workplaces will continue. This future is an outgrowth of Utah’s strong growth dynamic and increasing global economic and cultural interconnections. Along with the rest of the U.S., Utah’s population will continue to age. We project that this will be the case for all race and ethnic groups as death and birth rates decrease. Whites[...]
Insight: First ever Race/Ethnicity Projections for Utah Reveal that Utah will Continue to Diversify
By: Pamela Perlich Today we are publishing Utah’s first ever state-level race and ethnicity population projections. We project single year of age and sex for 2016 to 2065 for seven population groups: six non-Hispanic race groups and Hispanics. These new projections provide a more detailed view of the future that can potentially inform a wide range of policy planning and evaluation applications. This work builds on 2017 baseline Utah projections. […]
Insight: Utah’s quality of life depends on transportation investment
By: Natalie Gochnour First published in the Deseret News I’ve been sharing a simple statistic to illustrate the magnitude of Utah’s recent population growth. If you combine natural increase (births minus deaths) and net in-migration over the last five years, Utah has added a population larger than the population of Weber County, Utah’s fourth largest county. […]
The Utah Demographic and Economic Model
Models certainly do not replace thinking, but rather inform thinking. We build models to organize thought processes, understand relationships, shed light on cause and effect, and, ultimately, help people make INFORMED DECISIONS. In a high-growth state like Utah, long-term demographic and economic projection models provide vital information that helps with education, transportation, water, and other policies. They count on the development, upkeep, and operation of these models to help them make smart decisions and, ultimately, help our state prosper.
Video: Utah’s Long-Term Demographic and Economic Projections
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute recently co-hosted the Utah Legislature at a policy summit focused on Utah’s future. The summit opened with this video, which highlights growth and change in Utah. The video presents the findings of the state’s long-term demographic and economic projections such as growth, urbanization, declining fertility, sustained in-migration and an aging population.
Insight: The next 50 years will be a test of community leadership for a growing Utah County
By: Natalie Gochnour Originally published in the Deseret News The numbers are hard to ignore. A mountain of economic and demographic data as high as Mount Timpanogos shows Utah County on the rise. Economic, demographic and political power are shifting south, and Utah’s second largest county is the epicenter of growth and change in the Beehive State. The only question is are we ready? The state’s most recent employment report shows Utah County’s economy growing at more than twice the state average and nearly three times the national average. This isn’t a surprise given the extraordinary tech-sector job growth currently[...]