By: Mike Hollingshaus
We are pleased to release our new short-term projections for 2018 to 2028. They incorporate the latest data to give Utahns newer insights into our changing demographics. Our projections show the state continuing to grow over the next ten years, at an average of 1.7 percent annually. This translates into 570,000 people. Household growth is also robust with an increase of 270,000 over 10 years. In general, births have slowed, and net migration is becoming an even more important component of Utah’s growth.
These new projections should help Utah’s policymakers as they plan for our future. We generated them using the Utah Demographic and Economic Model (UDEM). We previously used this model to generate long-term projections extending from 2016 to 2065. Users should still use the long-term projections for applications beyond 2028. But, for any short-term work, we recommend these new projections.
Why do we update projections? Long-term projections rely upon long-term trends, but, short-term projections must consider the cyclical short-term trends that require continual data monitoring. Policymakers rely particularly upon projections of the next few years for immediate plans and budgets. These short-term projections fill that need.
A lot has happened in the past few years,