Demographic Research
Navigating Utah’s Demographic Dip: Strategically Positioning Utah Higher Education Amid College-age Population Declines
Pending college-age population declines provide opportunities for state and institutional policymakers to strategically transform, conserve, and realign.
Mean Center of Population and Employment in Utah’s Economic Regions
The mean center of population and employment in northern Utah both fall in Salt Lake City. This reflects the strong influence Utah’s Greater Salt Lake economic region, namely Salt Lake City and County.
Utah Population Committee Postcensal Estimates Accuracy Analysis, 2010-2020
Compared with the count from the 2020 census, the Utah Population Committee (UPC) population estimate of 3,259,792 underestimated the state count by 11,824 people or .4%. When considering the individual methods used in UPC, the Housing Stock method was the most accurate, while the LDS method was the least at the state level. The performance of the UPC estimates compared to the 2020 census and the individual UPC methods varied by county.
A Look into the 2010-2020 Decline in Salt Lake City’s Youth Population
Salt Lake City's under-18 population decreased by almost 5,000 residents last decade, while its adult population continued to grow.
Opportunity Knocks: The Fiscal Impacts of Declining School-age Population in Utah
Utah’s changing demographics, marked by a projected decline in the school-age population, present unique fiscal impacts and opportunities for state and local leaders.
Demographic Impacts of Zero Migration in Utah – A Projection Scenario
Net migration has become a more dependable contributor to population growth in Utah. A simulation of zero migration highlights what those contributions are—with Utah’s projected population being 1.4 million less, or 23% smaller, than the 2021 Vintage baseline projected population in 2060.
Fact Sheet: Utah’s Home-Based Workers
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly accelerated growth in the number of Utahns working from home. In 2021, 1 in 5 (20%) Utahns worked from home, compared with fewer than one in thirteen (7.4%) in 2019.
Utah’s Declining Fertility Rate
Fertility in the U.S. and Utah has steadily declined almost every year since the Great Recession in 2008. Final 2021 data revealed that the U.S. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) increased for the first time since 2014, along with 29 other states and Washington D.C. However, Utah’s TFR remained the same at 1.9.
Characteristics of Utah’s Migrants: A 2021 Update
In 2021, the magnitude and characteristics of Utah’s migrants shifted from the 2014-2018 pre-pandemic period. Changing population dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as increasing telework, increasing uncertainty, and changing housing market conditions, helped drive these shifts.
Demographic Inputs for Utah’s Long-Term Baseline and Scenario Planning Projections
This document presents inputs and methods that produced the demographic components of change for the Vintage 2021 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute’s Utah Demographic and Economic Model (UDEM). Details include geographic variations within the state, age and gender patterns, and special types of migration related to retirement, missionaries, students, and other special populations. The document also reports how the limited 2020 decennial census data were combined with other resources and models to inform the process.
