Population Projections
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute produces three products for the State of Utah to inform decision making: long-term (50-year) planning projections, short-term (10-year) projections, and long-term projections by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin.
The Utah long and short-term projections are updated every four years on an alternating schedule. Previous vintages created by the Gardner Institute, for reference purposes only, are available in our archive.
Insight: High and Low Projection Scenarios for Utah and its Counties
By: Mike Hollingshaus Aug 9, 2022 – The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute created a new low- and high-growth scenario product for the state and all 29 counties for the first time. This information supplements the regularly-produced baseline long-term planning projections with alternative plausible futures for the state and counties. The figure highlights the range for the total population statewide, with the low scenario coming in at 4.4 million residents in 2060 and the high at 6.3 million. The baseline projection is 5.5 million residents. […]
User Guide: Long-Term Planning Projection Scenarios
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute prepares long-term demographic and economic planning projections to assist with state decision-making. The Institute released a set of baseline (or most likely) projections in January 2022. These baseline projections provide the data foundation for Utah’s long-term transportation, water, education, and other planning activities.
Insight: New Product: Experimental Age, Sex, Race and Ethnicity Projections for Every State for 2030, with Scenarios
By: Mike Hollingshaus and Emily Harris Jun 22, 2022 – The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute is happy to release a new experimental product: population projections for every state in 2030. These are available by age, sex, race, and ethnicity. High, middle, and low scenarios are also available. We provide datasets, a user guide, and some useful dynamic visuals for exploration (an example for the Mountain states is pictured below). These projections combine other publicly available datasets using transparent statistical methods, as detailed in the User Guide. […]
Experimental Age, Sex, Race and Ethnicity Projections for Every State for 2030, with Scenarios
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute produced new experimental population projections for 2030 by sex, age, race and ethnicity, and state as part of a contract with the Sorenson Impact Center (SIC).
Accuracy Analysis of Long-Term Planning Projections for Utah and its Counties
With over half a century of population projections in Utah, this analysis highlights the difficulty of accurately identifying the future population based on current trends.
Insight: County-Level Insights from our Long-Term Planning Projections
By Mallory Bateman and Max Backlund Mar 2, 2022 – The Gardner Institute recently released a new vintage of long-term planning projections. The data provides official insights into the state and counties’ total populations, households, and economies. With this data, communities can plan for the next 10, 20, and 40 years and consider how changing characteristics might impact services, policies, and more. […]
Utah’s Long-Term Planning Projections: A Baseline Scenario of Population and Employment Change in Utah and its Counties
Utah's continued economic growth and diversification and declining natural increase will drive net migration to become a steadily increasing force as the population grows by over 2.2 million people (a 66% increase) in the next four decades.