Population Projections
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute produces three products for the State of Utah to inform decision making: long-term (50-year) planning projections, short-term (10-year) projections, and long-term projections by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin.
The Utah long and short-term projections are updated every four years on an alternating schedule. Previous vintages created by the Gardner Institute, for reference purposes only, are available in our archive.
Accuracy Analysis of Long-Term Planning Projections for Utah and its Counties
With over half a century of population projections in Utah, this analysis highlights the difficulty of accurately identifying the future population based on current trends.
Utah’s Long-Term Planning Projections: A Baseline Scenario of Population and Employment Change in Utah and its Counties
Utah's continued economic growth and diversification and declining natural increase will drive net migration to become a steadily increasing force as the population grows by over 2.2 million people (a 66% increase) in the next four decades.
Demographic County Profiles by Age, Sex, Race and Ethnicity, 2010–2019
Utah’s 2019 population was estimated at 3,220,272. Between 2010 and 2019, it grew by 447,875, representing an average annual percentage growth rate of 1.7 percent. The state remains relatively young with 29.3 percent of the population being preschool or school age (under 18), compared to 11.2 percent of retirement age (65 and older).
Utah’s Increasing Diversity: Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity
Utah will continue to be a place of economic and educational opportunity, bringing new residents from domestic and international regions. We project Utah’s population will continue to grow and become more diverse along many dimensions, including ethnicity and race. The trend toward increasingly diverse schools and workplaces will continue. This future is an outgrowth of Utah’s strong growth dynamic and increasing global economic and cultural interconnections. Along with the rest of the U.S., Utah’s population will continue to age. We project that this will be the case for all race and ethnic groups as death and birth rates decrease. Whites [...]
The Utah Demographic and Economic Model
Models certainly do not replace thinking, but rather inform thinking. We build models to organize thought processes, understand relationships, shed light on cause and effect, and, ultimately, help people make INFORMED DECISIONS. In a high-growth state like Utah, long-term demographic and economic projection models provide vital information that helps with education, transportation, water, and other policies. They count on the development, upkeep, and operation of these models to help them make smart decisions and, ultimately, help our state prosper.
Video: Utah’s Long-Term Demographic and Economic Projections
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute recently co-hosted the Utah Legislature at a policy summit focused on Utah’s future. The summit opened with this video, which highlights growth and change in Utah. The video presents the findings of the state’s long-term demographic and economic projections such as growth, urbanization, declining fertility, sustained in-migration and an aging population.
Utah’s Long-Term Demographic and Economic Projections Summary
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute prepares long-term demographic and economic projections to support informed decision making in the state. The Utah Legislature funds this research, which is done in collaboration with the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget, the Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst, the Utah Association of Governments, and other research entities. These 50-year projections indicate continued population growth and illuminate a range of future dynamics and structural shifts for Utah. An initial set of products is available online at gardner.utah.edu. Additional research briefs, fact sheets, web-enabled visualizations, and other products will be produced in the coming [...]
