Population Projections
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute produces three products for the State of Utah to inform decision making: long-term (50-year) planning projections, short-term (10-year) projections, and long-term projections by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin.
The Utah long and short-term projections are updated every four years on an alternating schedule. Previous vintages created by the Gardner Institute, for reference purposes only, are available in our archive.
Utah State and County Short-Term Planning Projections, 2024-2033
Utah is projected to add over 500,000 new residents by 2033, driven equally by natural increase and net migration.
Insight: How do the new U.S. Population Projections Compare to Utah’s?
By: Mike Hollingshaus Nov 9, 2023 – The U.S. Census Bureau recently published new long-term population projections for the United States to 2100, along with scenarios. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute publishes population projections for Utah and its 29 counties. Our most recent baseline long-term planning projections and to 2060 were published last year. […]
Demographic Impacts of Zero Migration in Utah – A Projection Scenario
Net migration has become a more dependable contributor to population growth in Utah. A simulation of zero migration highlights what those contributions are—with Utah’s projected population being 1.4 million less, or 23% smaller, than the 2021 Vintage baseline projected population in 2060.
Insight: Migration’s Contributions to Population Growth
By: Mike Hollingshaus Sep 29, 2023 – A new fact sheet explores net migration’s cumulative effects on Utah’s projected population growth – without it, Utah’s population would include 1.4 million fewer residents in 2060. Natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration are the two sources of growth. Both have been important in Utah’s past, but recently net migration has become more prominent. That trend will likely continue, though our projections maintain positive natural increase in Utah through 2060. […]
Insight: Demographic Inputs for Projections
By: Mike Hollingshaus Note: The opinions expressed are those of the author alone and do not reflect an institutional position of the Gardner Institute. We hope the opinions shared contribute to the marketplace of ideas and help people as they formulate their own INFORMED DECISIONS™. […]
Demographic Inputs for Utah’s Long-Term Baseline and Scenario Planning Projections
This document presents inputs and methods that produced the demographic components of change for the Vintage 2021 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute’s Utah Demographic and Economic Model (UDEM). Details include geographic variations within the state, age and gender patterns, and special types of migration related to retirement, missionaries, students, and other special populations. The document also reports how the limited 2020 decennial census data were combined with other resources and models to inform the process.
Insight: The Future of Utah’s School and College-Age Population
By Heidi Prior Dec 28, 2022 – Utah’s population will add more than 284,000 school and college-age individuals between 2020 and 2060, according to long-term planning projections published by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. The variations in these populations over time reflect the impacts of birth patterns and migration over time. This blog summarizes projected changes in Utah’s school-age (5 to 17) and college-age (18-24) populations, which are explored in more depth in this research brief. […]
Utah’s School- and College-Age Populations: 2021 Long-Term Planning Projection Update
The age detail provided in the long-term planning projections published by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute illustrates how changes in age structure and declines in births impact the school (5-to-17-year-old) and college (18-to-24-year-old) age populations throughout the state over the next four decades.