Population Projections
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute produces three products for the State of Utah to inform decision making: long-term (50-year) planning projections, short-term (10-year) projections, and long-term projections by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin.
The Utah long and short-term projections are updated every four years on an alternating schedule. Previous vintages created by the Gardner Institute, for reference purposes only, are available in our archive.
Utah State and County Short-Term Planning Projections, 2024-2033
Utah is projected to add over 500,000 new residents by 2033, driven equally by natural increase and net migration.
Demographic Impacts of Zero Migration in Utah – A Projection Scenario
Net migration has become a more dependable contributor to population growth in Utah. A simulation of zero migration highlights what those contributions are—with Utah’s projected population being 1.4 million less, or 23% smaller, than the 2021 Vintage baseline projected population in 2060.
Demographic Inputs for Utah’s Long-Term Baseline and Scenario Planning Projections
This document presents inputs and methods that produced the demographic components of change for the Vintage 2021 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute’s Utah Demographic and Economic Model (UDEM). Details include geographic variations within the state, age and gender patterns, and special types of migration related to retirement, missionaries, students, and other special populations. The document also reports how the limited 2020 decennial census data were combined with other resources and models to inform the process.
Utah’s School- and College-Age Populations: 2021 Long-Term Planning Projection Update
The age detail provided in the long-term planning projections published by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute illustrates how changes in age structure and declines in births impact the school (5-to-17-year-old) and college (18-to-24-year-old) age populations throughout the state over the next four decades.
User Guide: Long-Term Planning Projection Scenarios
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute prepares long-term demographic and economic planning projections to assist with state decision-making. The Institute released a set of baseline (or most likely) projections in January 2022. These baseline projections provide the data foundation for Utah’s long-term transportation, water, education, and other planning activities.
Experimental Age, Sex, Race and Ethnicity Projections for Every State for 2030, with Scenarios
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute produced new experimental population projections for 2030 by sex, age, race and ethnicity, and state as part of a contract with the Sorenson Impact Center (SIC).
