Blog Post

By: Mike Hollingshaus

Note: The opinions expressed are those of the author alone and do not reflect an institutional position of the Gardner Institute. We hope the opinions shared contribute to the marketplace of ideas and help people as they formulate their own INFORMED DECISIONS™.

Mar 24, 2020 – COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, is challenging Utah’s individuals, families, and institutions. Following the guidance of our public health experts should help alleviate harm. In the meantime, we must still prepare for our states’ future operations while coping with near term disruptions. This leads us to wondering: How might COVID-19 affect Utah’s population growth?

It’s impossible to make detailed predictions. Since humans are clever in adapting to new circumstances, we must settle for informed guesses. Major disruptions will probably be short lived, and depend upon national, state, local, and personal responses. An excellent piece on long term impacts is available here.

Populations grow through three “components of change”—net migration, births, and deaths. The most likely scenario is one where net migration and births decrease while deaths increase, yielding smaller population growth.

Net migration will probably decrease.

Utah’s robust economic growth and high quality of life have powered a recent in-migration surge. As the economy suffers from COVID-19, both in- and out-migration will probably slow and net migration decline.

Moving is difficult, so in the face of hardship people will generally not migrate unless the destination offers considerably greater advantage. The most recent example in Utah was the Great Recession, when net migration dipped barely below zero. Disruptions in higher education and missionary service could complicate these patterns as social isolation designed to blunt the virus’s impact further limits mobility. People also tend to return home and pool resources during major economic disruptions. This could initiate new and unforeseen patterns of living arrangements and migration.

Births rates will probably decrease.

To be fair, there’s a good chance birth rates would decrease anyway. Modern economic realities lead couples to postpone childbearing, and Utah is not immune. The total fertility rate recently lost its distinction of being the nation’s highest; in 2018 it dropped below replacement—the level necessary to replace the population without migration.

COVID-19 will likely accelerate that trend in the near term through economic uncertainty, concerns about childbearing in an overburdened healthcare system, and pregnancy complications caused by physical or emotional stress. Of course, things are never so simple, and unintended pregnancies are by definition less predictable.

Deaths will probably increase.

COVID-19 has a case-fatality rate (the percent of cases that result in death) much higher than the seasonal flu. Projecting the number of deaths is a task best left to infectious disease experts. Some initial expert projections suggest COVID-19 could cause a drastic surge in Utah deaths. The 1918 flu pandemic offers stark warning. You can explore historical death rates with this online visualization tool.

As historians and genealogists can attest, in the early 1900s infectious disease was still the leading cause of death. As scientific expertise grew, the death rate fell. The 1918 flu interfered, precipitating an anomalous death rate spike. But the damage did not stop with that spike, as infections can exact long term harm by weakening survivors’ bodies throughout life.

But there is some good news. Over 100 years, considerable advances in vaccination, treatment, sanitation, housing, and other factors provide us with a better toolbox for combating disease—an “Age of Receding Pandemics.” Following the guidance of health officials through social isolation can further save lives by flattening the curve—spreading the incidence of infections over a longer period of time, keeping the caseload manageable.

Beyond the numbers

In the near future, researchers like myself will explore how COVID-19 altered Utah’s population and economic and economic growth. But until the data arrive, we can only guess what will happen. Responsible planning demands we scrutinize numbers in great detail.

But numbers are only part of the story.

First and foremost, each number represents a person—someone’s child, neighbor, and friend; perhaps a spouse, sibling, mentor, or student. Numbers obscure those beautiful and complex social connections that make life meaningful. Death begets grief, because we love each other.

The stakes are far greater than some bottom-line quantitative fallout. They are deeply personal.

Mike Hollingshaus is a senior demographer at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.