Blog Post

Insight: Despite Economic Uncertainty, Wages Continue to Rise Overall

By: Juliette Tennert and Kathryn Macdonald-Poelman

The recent quarterly report on personal income growth from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) gives some surprising and not so surprising tells for the nation as a whole and for Utahns. The components of total personal income include property income (dividends, interest and rent), transfer receipts (social security, Medicare, disability or unemployment insurance compensation etc.), and earnings (the sum of wages and salaries, including income for the self-employed). As the largest share of personal income, a close look at earnings within personal income can provide the clearest picture of how the everyday American is being affected by the economic climate.

States with strong job growth in the last year continued to climb in income. Utah came out swinging with a high 4.6% increase in overall personal income growth for the state, second only to Texas (6.0% growth). Figure 1 indicates where wages increased (or decreased) for the fastest growing states:

Figure 1: Earnings Growth by Major Industry, Top 3 States, Q1 2019 – Q2 2019

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

However, not all states saw wage growth in their state. Farmers have been heavily impacted due to the escalating trade war with China. For the country’s most sluggish states, the major losses were in agriculture with only modest growth in other industries. Many of the Plains states experienced low or negative wage growth in the last quarter with farming wages dropping dramatically (see Figure 2).

Figure 2: Earnings Growth by Major Industry, Bottom 3 States, Q1 2019 – Q2 2019

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

With projected changes in the economy, the next quarterly report in December may tell a different story. For now, we know that even in our current expansion, not everyone is reaping the benefits of economic growth.