Population Projections

The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute has produced its inaugural long-term demographic and economic projections for the state of Utah. This is a significant milestone as we continue our research efforts that will culminate in the release of county level projections in July 2017. These 50-year state projections illustrate continued population growth and a range of future dynamics and structural shifts for Utah.

We have produced three sets of state-level projections for high, baseline, and low scenarios of population growth by single year of age (up to 100+) and sex. The 50-year projections extend from 2015 to 2065. The baseline scenario incorporates assumptions that embody Utah’s most likely future for fertility, mortality, migration, labor force dynamics, and economic growth. The high and low scenarios are constructed using reasonable upper and lower bounds for the forces that most strongly shape Utah’s population.

The suite of products include a research brief explaining and summarizing results, a fact sheet with top level results, a presentation file, dynamic visualizations, and downloadable data. The research links provide access to those resources.