Questions Comprising the Index – Utah’s Survey of Consumer Sentiment includes seven questions concerning current and expected future economic conditions. Five of the questions are identical to those included in the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumer Sentiment in the U.S. They include the first three questions shown in the dashboard. Two of the five questions are not provided in the dashboard and refer to business or economic conditions in the country as a whole (rather than in one’s home state, for example). Utah’s survey also includes alternate versions of the business or economic conditions questions that refer to conditions in the state of Utah rather than the country (shown as the last two questions in the dashboard). These alternatives are used when calculating Utah’s consumer sentiment among state residents. The U.S. consumer sentiment index comes from the University of Michigan survey.

Calculating and Interpreting Scores – Higher scores indicate greater confidence. The index score is calculated as the difference in the percentage of respondents who give a “favorable” reply and the percentage of respondents who give an “unfavorable” reply, plus 100. For example, a score of 125 means the “favorable” replies outnumber the “unfavorable” replies by 25 percentage points.

The University of Michigan calculates the Index of Consumer Sentiment as a ratio. The numerator is the sum of the differences between the percent responding favorably and the percent responding unfavorably, plus 500 (so that the numerator is the sum of the index scores from five questions). The denominator is the value the numerator took in a particular historical year, rescaled. For Michigan, this value is 6.7558 and refers to the year 1966. To this ratio, Michigan adds a small amount—2.0—to account for changes to the survey during its early years. The Utah index is calculated using this same method and incorporates Michigan’s reference period value and adjustment. However, as noted above, two of the five questions differ by design.

Survey Methodology – The Utah Consumer Sentiment Survey uses key questions from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. These questions measure residents’ views of the present economic situation and their expectation for the economy in the future. Data gathered from the key questions are used to create Utah’s consumer sentiment index. Demographic questions are included in the questionnaire to allow for additional data analysis and to assess the sample’s representativeness. The roughly 400-interview sample (varies slightly by month) yields a roughly +/- 4.0% margin of error (again, this varies by month) on the index at a 5% level of significance. All survey interviews are conducted by telephone by a professional data collection company. The sample is drawn to be proportional to the population of Utah’s 29 counties. Weighting of demographic data may be used to ensure the sample more closely aligns with U.S. Census data for Utah adult residents.

The University of Michigan conducted its consumer sentiment survey entirely by telephone until March 2024. In April 2024, it began transitioning to online data collection for the official Index of Consumer Sentiment, gradually reducing the share of telephone responses. Online responses accounted for approximately 25% of responses in April, 50% in May, and 75% in June, with the remaining responses collected via telephone. Since July 2024, all responses have been collected online. Before making this transition, the University of Michigan had been testing both telephone and online methodologies for seven years. In April 2024, University of Michigan researchers estimated that switching to online data collection resulted in an average method effect of -6.6 index points, with online respondents generally being less optimistic than those surveyed by phone.