Recent Research
Recently Published
The most recent research published by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Fact Sheet: U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for Age, Vintage 2018
Each year, the Census Bureau produces population estimates at varying levels of geography. The release of the age, sex, race and Hispanic origin at the nation, state, and county level completes the 2018 vintage estimate package. Prior pieces of this release include national, state, county, metropolitan/ micropolitan, and incorporated place (cities and towns) estimates for the 2018 vintage. All releases include annual estimates from Census 2010 to July 1, 2018.
Fact Sheet: U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for Race and Hispanic Origin, Vintage 2018
Each year, the Census Bureau produces population estimates at varying levels of geography. The age, sex, race and Hispanic origin estimates at the nation, state, and county level completes the 2018 vintage estimate package. Prior pieces of this release include national, state, county, metropolitan/micropolitan, and incorporated place (cities and towns) estimates for the 2018 vintage. All releases include annual estimates from Census 2010 to July 1, 2018. This final estimates release is expansive, so there are two fact sheets detailing the results: one for Race and Hispanic origin, and one for age and sex.
Fact Sheet: Utah State and County Short-term Population Projections: 2018-2028
We project Utah’s population will grow on average at 1.7 percent per year from 3,166,647 in 2018 to 3,739,193 in 2028 for a total growth of 572,546. Natural increase is the main driver contributing 339,826 people, while net migration provides the remaining 232,720. The population will become older as Baby Boomers retire and birth rates stay low. This is reflected in a median age rising by 2.8 years from 31.4 to 34.2.
The Salt Lake Apartment Market: An Analysis of Apartment Rental Rates in the Greater Salt Lake Region
Strong demand for apartment units in the Wasatch Front has led to a rapid increase in rental rates. Since the Great Recession, the increase in average rent has outpaced income growth and inflation. Pent up demand coupled with a robust population increase has fueled the growth of the regions’ rental market. Traditionally, Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Murray, and other northern cities of Salt Lake County have held a majority of the apartment inventory. However, cites in southern Salt Lake County and northern Utah County are experiencing significant expansion. Renters are showing a preference for proximity to employment centers,[...]
State Budget Stress Testing: How Utah Budget-makers are Shifting the Focus from a Balanced Budget to Fiscal Sustainability
State budget stress tests help policymakers to plan for and create appropriate, measured responses to economic volatility. Utah is the first state to implement comprehensive budget stress testing, evaluating the sufficiency of reserves and other budget contingencies to cover recession-spurred revenue shortfalls and countercyclical cost hikes.
State Budget Stress Testing User Guide
This user guide is a supplemental piece to the Gardner Institute’s report “State Budget Stress Testing: How Utah Budget makers are Shifting the Focus from a Balanced Budget to Fiscal Sustainability.” It is intended to assist other states in preparing their own budget stress tests.
Ivory-Boyer Construction Report, 1st Quarter 2019
The total statewide value of permit authorized construction during the first quarter of 2019 is $2.0 billion. This value is within a few million dollars of an all-time first quarter high in 2018 (inflation adjusted). Nonresidential construction value is particularly strong with a total of $641 million, up 35 percent over 2018. The number and value of residential permits issued, however, are down from the strong first quarter of 2018. Nevertheless, first quarter 2019 is still the second highest year in residential value since 2006 and the second highest in residential permits since 2007.
Fact Sheet: Utah State and County Annual Population Estimates by Single Year of Age and Sex: 2010-2018
Utah’s population grew by nearly 400 thousand people (about 15 percent) since 2010. This is considerable growth, but only part of the story. Birth rates are falling, Utah’s population is aging, and Baby Boomers are retiring. Since 2010, the retirement age population (65 and older) grew by nearly 40 percent, while the youth population (under 18) grew by less than 10 percent.