Long-Term
The long-term demographic and economic planning projections are produced to inform state decision making at the state and county level. These 40-year state and county projections, produced through an economic and demographic model, illustrate continued population and employment growth with a range of future changes throughout the state.
Demographic Inputs for Utah’s Long-Term Baseline and Scenario Planning Projections
This document presents inputs and methods that produced the demographic components of change for the Vintage 2021 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute’s Utah Demographic and Economic Model (UDEM). Details include geographic variations within the state, age and gender patterns, and special types of migration related to retirement, missionaries, students, and other special populations. The document also reports how the limited 2020 decennial census data were combined with other resources and models to inform the process.
Utah’s School- and College-Age Populations: 2021 Long-Term Planning Projection Update
The age detail provided in the long-term planning projections published by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute illustrates how changes in age structure and declines in births impact the school (5-to-17-year-old) and college (18-to-24-year-old) age populations throughout the state over the next four decades.
User Guide: Long-Term Planning Projection Scenarios
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute prepares long-term demographic and economic planning projections to assist with state decision-making. The Institute released a set of baseline (or most likely) projections in January 2022. These baseline projections provide the data foundation for Utah’s long-term transportation, water, education, and other planning activities.
Accuracy Analysis of Long-Term Planning Projections for Utah and its Counties
With over half a century of population projections in Utah, this analysis highlights the difficulty of accurately identifying the future population based on current trends.
Utah’s Long-Term Planning Projections: A Baseline Scenario of Population and Employment Change in Utah and its Counties
Utah's continued economic growth and diversification and declining natural increase will drive net migration to become a steadily increasing force as the population grows by over 2.2 million people (a 66% increase) in the next four decades.
Demographic County Profiles by Age, Sex, Race and Ethnicity, 2010–2019
Utah’s 2019 population was estimated at 3,220,272. Between 2010 and 2019, it grew by 447,875, representing an average annual percentage growth rate of 1.7 percent. The state remains relatively young with 29.3 percent of the population being preschool or school age (under 18), compared to 11.2 percent of retirement age (65 and older).
The Utah Demographic and Economic Model
Models certainly do not replace thinking, but rather inform thinking. We build models to organize thought processes, understand relationships, shed light on cause and effect, and, ultimately, help people make INFORMED DECISIONS. In a high-growth state like Utah, long-term demographic and economic projection models provide vital information that helps with education, transportation, water, and other policies. They count on the development, upkeep, and operation of these models to help them make smart decisions and, ultimately, help our state prosper.
Utah’s Long-Term Demographic and Economic Projections Summary
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute prepares long-term demographic and economic projections to support informed decision making in the state. The Utah Legislature funds this research, which is done in collaboration with the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget, the Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst, the Utah Association of Governments, and other research entities. These 50-year projections indicate continued population growth and illuminate a range of future dynamics and structural shifts for Utah. An initial set of products is available online at gardner.utah.edu. Additional research briefs, fact sheets, web-enabled visualizations, and other products will be produced in the coming[...]