Blog Post
Insight: Online debate polls- Are the results representative?
By: Dianne Meppen
According to six of seven online polls I saw the morning after the last Republican debate, Donald Trump was the winner. There was considerable difference between poll results, however, with Trump receiving anywhere from 24 percent to 43 percent of top votes in the various polls I checked. Pundits didn’t give Trump the resounding victory the online polls did, though. In fact, there wasn’t much consensus on a debate winner by commentators and political experts.
CNN hosted the Republican Presidential Debate on Sept. 16.
So, are the results we see from online polls representative of those who watched the debate? Do they actually help us know in what direction the electorate might be moving?
Here’s the issue…
These online surveys allow anyone to access the website to participate in the poll – making it impossible for the poll to represent registered voters or even the general public with any degree of accuracy. All that can be said about the results is that they may reflect a portion of each website’s users’ opinions. To be fair, two of the polls, the Slate poll and the Time poll, have disclaimers about their online surveys not being representative of primary voters. The other sites were not as transparent about who their poll results did or did not represent.
Interestingly, none of the five online polls I participated in asked if I’d watched the debate. Nor was I asked my political party affiliation, if I was registered to vote, or even if I live in the United States. Some polls even let me vote more than once. Also, such polls generally introduce self-selection bias – drawing only certain types of individuals, not all types of voters or debate viewers. I found the same issues on several online polls measuring opinion on the recent Democratic Presidential debate as well.
I’d rather know which candidate won in the eyes of registered voters that saw the debate. This group better reflects those that will actually help select the final presidential candidates. To best measure their opinions would require a random sample of registered voters with a question to screen for whether they had watched the debate. While candidates, parties, and professional research firms certainly use such methods for more formal polling, these online polls do not.
Polls with a fast turnaround time and non-scientific methods are often referred to as ‘quick and dirty polls.’ That is what these online debate polls are. Ultimately the only things they produce are meaningless results and catchy headlines that serve to create misinformation and confusion.
Individuals interested in a better measure of opinion of registered primary voters regarding the debates should instead watch for polls that randomly sample and use more scientific methods.
Dianne Meppen is the director of survey research at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.