By: Dejan Eskic
Note: The opinions expressed are those of the author alone and do not reflect an institutional position of the Gardner Institute. We hope the opinions shared contribute to the marketplace of ideas and help people as they formulate their own INFORMED DECISIONS™.
Last week, the Gardner Institute published our inaugural State of the State’s Housing Market report, where we analyzed how Utah’s housing market fared through the COVID-19 pandemic and shed some light on what to expect in 2022. In the few months that it took us to write the report, so much was happening that we had to restructure our outline and address new topics that weren’t initially included.
A few days before we released our report, Goldman Sachs came out with their forecast predicting national home prices will grow a further 16% by the end of 2022, citing a supply and demand imbalance.[i] However, Zelman & Associates (one of the nation’s leading housing research consultants) shared a pessimistic view on housing and is of the opinion that there is too much capital in housing and that we are overbuilt at a national level.[ii] These two opposing views by highly regarded entities highlight just how challenging the current and future housing market is.
So, where do I fall between these two “extreme” views? Somewhere in the middle, but closer to Goldman’s view. Although I think a 16% increase in national housing prices is a bit too high, we did forecast Utah’s pri