Blog Post

Utah Housing Coalition

This year, I have the honor of being the opening speaker for the Housing Matters Conference. As an economic demographer, I focus on populations, households, and living arrangements. In my talk, I will be reviewing the “big picture” trends affecting household formation, the emerging diversity of household types, and the implications of these for housing demand in Utah into the future.

Household formation is generally understood to be one of the major drivers of demand for housing. Subsequent to the housing bust of 2006 and severe recession that followed, the rate of formation of new households slowed dramatically both nationally and in Utah. As the recovery has progressed, the number of households has increased, but the rate of net new household formation remains low. There are, however, longer term structural and generational shifts that have compounded this trend. For example, age at first marriage has increased steadily since 1960. Marriage rates have declined. Incomes for many have stagnated resulting in an increasing population that is priced out of housing markets. So, even as the economic expansion provides young adults improved economic capacity to form independent households, there is not guarantee that household formation will return to historic trend rates.

Coincident with these declining rates of household growth are increasing complexity of living arrangements. The traditional opposite sex married couple household with children has declined from the majority of households in 1960 to less than one-third of Utah households and one-fifth of U.S. households in 2014. Some of this decline is attributable to the aging of the population as Baby Boomers approach retirement. Longer term declines in fertility and marriage rates as well as increasing ages of marriage and childbearing are major contributors. Increasing cultural and ethnic diversity, differences between first and second generation immigrants, changing preferences for housing location/type, and increasing economic inequality further complicate the story.

Certainly there are significant dimensions beyond these that impact the evolving affordable housing environment. Hopefully my talk will provide additional context for understanding the major demographic and generational shifts that are contributing to the changing character and dynamics of housing demand and affordable housing needs in Utah.  The team at Utah Housing Coalition, including the board, has put together an impressive program addressing critical issues. Registration for the Annual Conference is still open and available online.

Dr. Pamela Perlich is the director of demographic research at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.