By: Mike Hollingshaus
Last week, the Census Bureau released the 2022 1-Year American Community Survey (ACS) estimates. These estimates provide information on the characteristics of the population. This blog showcases some of the new data points related to housing and householders.
Recent research shows the U.S. householder rate consistently rising over the past several years for people aged 25-34. The rates for this age group have also risen in Utah but the story is more nuanced when considering patterns in renting vs. owning. After the 2008 recession, Utah’s homeowner rate declined drastically while the renter rate rose. The homeowner rate began steadily rising again in 2015 and continued to rise from 2021-2022.
The householder is the person listed on the mortgage or lease. In households with more than one person on those documents, it is often the person who fills out a census survey and provides a useful marker for analyzing housing trends. The age-specific householder rate, formerly called the headship rate by the U.S. Census Bureau, is the share of the population that are householders, or the number of householders divided by the population for each age group. Householder rates are patterned by age, generally increasing as people get older as illustrated in Figure 1.
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Tabulations of Census Bureau American Community Survey 1-year Estimates.
Figure 2 shows the annual householder rate for Utahns aged 25-34 from 2006 to 2022. This age group is particularly important because it encompasses the prime ages for first marriage and childbearing and is critical for household formation. Figure 2 shows the rates for this age group consistently rising in recent years, suggesting a recovery from the near decade of decline that followed the 2008 recession. The 42.2% rate for this group in 2022 still falls below the 43.9% observed before the 2008 recession. U.S. trends are similar over the past several years.
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Tabulations of Census Bureau American Community Survey 1-year Estimates.
Householders consist of owners and renters. Figure 3 shows the share of Utah householders that are renters vs. owners in 2022. Householders under 25 are more likely to rent, but the share that owns their homes generally increases with age. This shift from renting to owning occurs as people require time to enter the housing market and tend to remain homeowners once they are in that market (except perhaps at the oldest ages when rates decline slightly).
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Tabulations of Census Bureau American Community Survey 1-year Estimates.
Preliminary data analysis suggests Figure 3’s “fish” shape is present for all states, though exact numbers differ. Notice the even split between owner and renter householders for the Utah 25-34 age group.
Armed with this knowledge, we can break down Figure 2 into the homeowner and renter rates to reveal a more nuanced story for the 25-34 age group. These rates are calculated the same as the householder rate, except the numerator reflects the population of renters or owners. The homeowner rate plus the renter rate equals the householder rate.
Figure 4 shows the precipitous decreases in owner rates after the 2008 recession, with simultaneous increases in rental rates. The likeliest explanation is that those who would have been homeowners were increasingly renting. The homeowner rate did not begin to rise again until about 2015, when it was roughly equal to the renter rate, at which point a slight decline began in the renter rate. The homeowner rate continued to rise from 2021-2022.
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Tabulations of Census Bureau American Community Survey 1-year Estimates.
For the age 25-34 age group, homeowning is becoming more prevalent again, though not to the levels seen prior to the 2008 recession. The observed patterns appear to be related to the 2008 recession and eventual recovery. However, higher householding rates usually also indicate smaller household sizes. It is possible some of the recent rises could be due to the increasing age at first marriage or more people choosing to live alone.
For additional insights from the 1-Year ACS Estimates, which cover communities of 65,000 or larger, visit data.census.gov. If you want to learn more about gathering or working with ACS data, visit the Census Academy for everything from short videos to full courses on the data.
Mike Hollingshaus is a senior demographer at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.